The
traditional early warning methods for offshore jacket structures heavily rely
on single models, resulting in a high frequency of false alarms, which fail to
meet the practical demands of engineering applications. To improve the accuracy
and reliability of early warnings, this paper proposes a joint cumulative
probability distribution-based early warning method utilizing early warning
signals (EWS). This method first extracts the first-order autocorrelation
coefficient and Lyapunov exponent from the platform's environmental monitoring
and structural response data, and then predicts their residual sequence using
the ARIMA model for subsequent analysis. Subsequently, to precisely
characterize the nonlinear dependencies between different warning indicators,
kernel density estimation is used to construct the marginal distribution
functions. Based on the optimized Gumbel Copula function, a joint distribution
of the residuals of the EWS indicators is established. The results show that
the joint residuals exhibit weak correlation in the non-tail regions, but
significantly stronger correlation in the tail regions, particularly in the
upper tail. Finally, contour plots of the joint cumulative probability
distribution are generated based on the 3σ criterion of probability statistics,
and the points of intersection in different regions are analyzed to achieve
multi-indicator joint early warnings. The case study shows that, due to the limitations
of model structure and sequence characteristics, false alarm rates in
single-indicator models can range from 11.49% to 12.08%. In contrast, the early
warning model based on the joint cumulative probability distribution using
Copula effectively integrates the probability distribution characteristics of
EWS indicators, reducing the false alarm rate to 4.36%, thus improving the
accuracy of early warnings. This approach provides valuable reference for the
operational safety management of offshore jacket structures.
SONG Dalai1, HU Wenjia2, ZHANG Hui2, LIU Yang3, DAI Lingfei4, LIU Hongbing1
. A
Joint Early Warning Method for Offshore Jacket
Platforms Based on EWS and Copula Functions[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 0
: 1
.
DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2025.270