Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Closed-Loop Clustering and Multi-Objective Optimization

Expand
  • (1. Inner Mongolia Power(Group)Co., Ltd., Hohhot 010020, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China;2. School of Future Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;3. College of Smart Energy, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;4. Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion of the Ministry of Education, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;5. Shanghai Non-Carbon Energy Conversion and Utilization Institute, Shanghai 200240, China)

Online published: 2024-07-03

Abstract

In the field of regional short-term combined forecasting of wind power, although deep learning methods can effectively learn the predictive features of each individual model, they tend to result in overfitting when the sample data size is small. Additionally, although clustering methods are used to improve the accuracy of regional-level forecasting, existing methods typically aim to minimize the dissimilarity among wind farms, such as geographic dissimilarity, without considering consistency with the forecasting objectives, which involve minimizing forecasting errors. To address these issues, this paper proposes a short-term wind power prediction method based on closed-loop clustering and multi-objective optimization. First, wind farms are divided into multiple clusters through the closed-loop clustering method. For each cluster, the Bootstrap method is utilized to randomly extract N training subsets with replacement from the original dataset. Subsequently, N convolutional neural networks are trained independently using these subsets. Finally, multi-objective optimization is employed to integrate the prediction results from the N convolutional neural networks. Case studies utilizing wind farm data from Inner Mongolia, China, demonstrate that the proposed method reduced root mean square error by 33.81% compared to the long short-term memory model, by 24.08% compared to the convolutional neural network-based combined forecasting model, and by 14.05% compared to predictions based on the K-means clustering method.

Cite this article

GUO Qi1, 2, YAN Jun1, HAO Qianpeng1, HAN Dong1, YANG Zhihao1, YAN Xinyue3, ZHANG Haipeng4, LI Ran3, 4, 5 . Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Closed-Loop Clustering and Multi-Objective Optimization[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 0 : 0 . DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2024.079

Outlines

/