Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University >

2025 , Vol. 59 >Issue 8: 1133 - 1144

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.558

Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering

Probability Statistical Model for Measured Ground Motion Based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

  • FENG Pengfei ,
  • ZHOU Mi ,
  • LI Zhixuan ,
  • ZHU Guoqiang
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  • Key Laboratory for Old Bridge Detection and Reinforcement Technology of the Ministry of Transportation, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China

Received date: 2023-11-06

  Revised date: 2024-04-08

  Accepted date: 2024-04-12

  Online published: 2024-04-30

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Abstract

To develop a probability distribution model of peak ground acceleration, 255365 ground motion recordings are collected from 500 stations to create initial statistical samples of peak ground acceleration. First, the generalized extreme value distribution is employed as the probability model for peak ground acceleration. The effectiveness of the maximum likelihood estimation method and the linear moment estimation method, commonly used for estimating parameters of the extreme value distribution model, is assessed using the proposed generalized extreme value distribution model. Then, a method is proposed to determine the minimum required sample length when establishing a generalized extreme value distribution model based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimation. The analysis indicates that the data sample size should not be less than 120 when constructing the generalized extreme value distribution model for peak ground acceleration in seismic events. Statistical analysis is conducted on seismic peak ground acceleration data samples which meet the sample size requirement. It is observed that the model parameters converge to a relatively narrow range as the sample size increases. Ultimately, probability statistical models for measured peak ground acceleration and seismic hazard calculation formulas for different types of sites are established.

Key words： generalized extreme value distribution; maximum likelihood estimation; minimum sample length; earthquake action probability distribution; seismic hazard

Cite this article

FENG Pengfei , ZHOU Mi , LI Zhixuan , ZHU Guoqiang . Probability Statistical Model for Measured Ground Motion Based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2025 , 59(8) : 1133 -1144 . DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.558

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