Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University ›› 2019, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (2): 146-152.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2019.02.004

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Evaluation of Travel Time Reliability for Bus Passenger Based on Mixed Logit Model

NI Anning,LIU Yanchen,CUI Yuwei,LU Junli   

  1. 1. School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2. School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28

Abstract: Appropriate evaluation of traveler’s travel time reliability is important for understanding how the reliability influences traveler’s choice decision. Combined with SP survey design, two kinds of reliability criteria are applied and a questionnaire program which includes different decision scenes is proposed to study the characteristics of bus travelers’ evaluation of travel time reliability in the context of morning peak in Tianjin city. Questionnaire program is able to generate daily travel situations which are familiar to each respondent automatically. Mixed logit model is applied. The results provide the distribution of willingness to pay for the travel time reliability of travelers and the relation between reliability preference and different social economical characteristics. Furthermore, the results are also helpful for calculating the benefits of reliability improvement in transportation construction program, and provide meaningful references for TDM policies making.

Key words: travel decision, evaluation of travel time reliability, Mixed Logit model, bus traveler, travel demand management

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