Abstract: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) lunched a new round of model selection for motion prediction method of the Level 2 parametric rolling (PR) criteria in 2016. The model selection study on prediction method is very important for developing reasonable dynamic stability criteria and increasing the safety level of ship. According to test data, three alternative nonlinear dynamics methods are verified, validated and compared, including time-domain method and averaging method, and the reasons for difference of prediction precision have been analyzed. On this basis, vulnerability levels for large scale sample calculations and accident ship have been obtained and compared, and several suggestions about model selection for motion prediction method of the Level 2 PR criteria have also been given. The accuracy validation and comparison study are executed firstly for the motion prediction methods of Level 2 criteria of PR in this study, and parameters setting of time-domain method are also provided. This is helpful to the development of second generation stability criteria.

Key words: parametric roll, full scale ship prediction, nonlinear dynamics method, time-domain method, averaging method