为研究城市电力系统电源结构的演化路径，分析了城市电力系统各类电源装机容量的影响因素，建立了城市电力系统电源结构的系统动力学模型，包括电量平衡、火电发展、分布式风电发展、集中式风光发展和新能源承载能力模块。在建模过程中，采用符号回归方法客观、准确地设置模型参数，并着重考虑了低碳政策对各类电源的影响，以及新能源承载能力对新能源装机容量的反馈作用。通过差异化低碳政策场景仿真，得到了未来城市电力系统各类电源装机容量、新能源接入比例和新能源承载能力的变化趋势。仿真结果表明，低碳政策有助于新能源的发展和“双碳”目标的实现，助力城市能源体系的绿色低碳转型，但过高的政策强度可能导致城市电力系统新能源承载能力的不足，引发新能源的消纳问题。

To investigate the evolution path of the urban power system supply structure, analysis is conducted on the factors influencing the installed capacity of various power source types in the urban power system, a system dynamics model for the urban power system supply structure evolution is established. The model includes modules for power balance, thermal power development, distributed photovoltaic development, centralized wind and photovoltaic development, and new energy carrying capacity. In the modeling process, the symbolic regression method is used to objectively and accurately set the model parameters, with a focus on the impact of low-carbon policies on various types of power sources, as well as the feedback effect of renewable energy carrying capacity on the installed capacity of renewable energy. Through differentiated simulations under low-carbon policy scenarios, the changing trends of various types of power capacity, the proportion of new energy access, and the new energy carrying capacity in future urban power systems are obtained. Simulation results indicate that low-carbon policies contribute to the development of new energy and the achievement of "dual-carbon" goals, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of urban energy systems. However, excessive policy intensity may lead to insufficient renewable energy carrying capacity in urban power systems, causing issues in the absorption of new energy.