新型电力系统背景下,传统的能源消费者正在转变为既能消费电能又能生产电能的产消者。产消用户的大量涌现使得售电公司的购售电决策变得更加复杂,与此同时,售电公司也将面临更多的不确定性因素,造成较大的市场风险。针对上述问题,本文充分考虑产消用户的发用电特点,计及光伏、现货市场购售电价格不确定性因素的影响,提出一种不确定性因素下面向产消用户的售电公司购售电决策优化方法。首先,建立考虑不确定性因素的售电公司购售电决策双层优化模型:下层模型考虑产消用户光伏出力不确定性,以舒适度和用电成本为目标,建立产消用户鲁棒用能优化模型。上层模型针对现货市场购售电价格的不确定性,建立基于信息间隙决策理论(info-gap decision theory,IGDT)的售电公司鲁棒综合决策模型,并在售电公司侧引入储能和中长期购售电合同进一步提高售电公司的风险应对能力;随后,采用Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件将本文所建双层优化问题转化为单层非线性规划问题;最后,通过仿真分析证明了本文所得零售电价的经济性和所建模型的有效性。
In the context of the new power system, traditional energy consumers are transforming into prosumers who can both consume and produce electricity. The emergence of a large number of prosumers has made the purchase and sale decisions of electricity retailers more complicated, and at the same time, electricity retailers will also face more uncertainties, resulting in greater market risks. In view of the above problems, this paper proposes an optimization method of power purchase and sales strategy for electricity retailers facing prosumers under uncertain factors. Firstly, a two-tier optimization model for the purchase and sale of electricity by electricity retailers considering uncertainties is established. The upper model aims at the comfort and cost of prosumers, and considers the uncertainty of photovoltaic output, and establishes a robust energy optimization model for prosumers. Aiming at the uncertainty of electricity purchase and sale prices in the spot market, the lower model establishes a robust comprehensive decision-making model of electricity sales companies based on info-gap decision theory (IGDT). Then, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) condition is used to transform the two-level optimization problem proposed in this paper into a single-layer nonlinear programming problem. Finally, the simulation analysis proves the economy of the retail electricity price obtained and the effectiveness of established model.