城市电力系统演化路径的系统动力学建模分析

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2024.009

上海交通大学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (11): 1732-1741.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2024.009

• 新型电力系统与综合能源 • 上一篇下一篇

城市电力系统演化路径的系统动力学建模分析

叶骏¹, 何一冰¹, 李先锋¹, 严国灿², 燕磊²()

¹ 杭州市电力设计院有限公司, 杭州 310012
² 浙江大学电气工程学院, 杭州 310058

收稿日期:2024-01-05 修回日期:2024-04-02 接受日期:2024-04-30 出版日期:2025-11-28 发布日期:2025-12-02
通讯作者: 燕磊 E-mail:yan_lei@zju.edu.cn
作者简介:叶骏(1990—),工程师,从事220 kV及以下变电站二次设计研究.

System Dynamics Modeling Analysis of Urban Power System Evolution Path

YE Jun¹, HE Yibing¹, LI Xianfeng¹, YAN Guocan², YAN Lei²()

¹ Hangzhou Electric Power Design Institute, Hangzhou 310012, China
² College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

Received:2024-01-05 Revised:2024-04-02 Accepted:2024-04-30 Online:2025-11-28 Published:2025-12-02
Contact: YAN Lei E-mail:yan_lei@zju.edu.cn

1. 2024-009-附录.pdf(172KB)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究城市电力系统电源结构的演化路径,分析城市电力系统各类电源装机容量的影响因素,建立城市电力系统电源结构的系统动力学模型,包括电量平衡、火电发展、分布式光伏发展、集中式风光发展和新能源承载能力模块.在建模过程中,采用符号回归方法准确地设置模型参数,并着重考虑低碳政策对各类电源的影响,以及新能源承载能力对新能源装机容量的反馈作用.通过差异化低碳政策场景仿真,得到未来城市电力系统各类电源装机容量、新能源接入比例和新能源承载能力的变化趋势.仿真结果表明:低碳政策有助于新能源发展和“双碳”目标实现,助力城市能源体系的绿色低碳转型,但过高的政策强度可能导致城市电力系统新能源承载能力不足,引发新能源消纳问题.

关键词: 系统动力学, 符号回归, 城市电力系统, 电源结构, 新能源承载能力

Abstract:

To investigate the evolution path of urban power system supply structures, an analysis is conducted on the factors influencing the installed capacity of various power source types in urban power systems, and a system dynamics model for the urban power system supply structure is developed, which includes modules for power balance, thermal power development, distributed photovoltaic development, centralized wind and photovoltaic development, and new energy carrying capacity. In the modeling process, the symbolic regression method is used to accurately set the model parameters, with a focus on the impact of low-carbon policies on various types of power sources, as well as the feedback effect of renewable energy carrying capacity on the installed capacity of renewable energy.The changing trends of various types of power capacity, the proportion of new energy access, and the new energy carrying capacity in future urban power systems are obtained by differentiated simulations in low-carbon policy scenarios. The simulation results indicate that low-carbon policies contribute to the development of new energy and the achievement of “dual-carbon” goals, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of urban energy systems. However, excessive policy intensity may lead to insufficient renewable energy carrying capacity in urban power systems, causing problems in the absorption of new energy.

Key words: system dynamics, symbolic regression, urban power system, power supply structure, renewable energy carrying capacity

中图分类号:

TM727.2

叶骏, 何一冰, 李先锋, 严国灿, 燕磊. 城市电力系统演化路径的系统动力学建模分析[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2025, 59(11): 1732-1741.

YE Jun, HE Yibing, LI Xianfeng, YAN Guocan, YAN Lei. System Dynamics Modeling Analysis of Urban Power System Evolution Path[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(11): 1732-1741.

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表达式	C	L	S
y=716.3	1	1.608×10⁴	0.0
y=x₁-270.9	3	2955	0.8469
y=0.030 61x₀+353.4	5	365.9	1.045
y=0.030 61x₀+353.4	7	365.9	1.639×10^-5
y=0.032 93x₀-0.075 95x₁+400.9	9	353.3	0.01746
y=0.032 90x₀-0.074 72x₁+400.1	11	353.3	6.623×10^-6
y=0.032 90x₀-0.075 13x₁+400.4	15	353.3	2.105×10^-5

城市电力系统演化路径的系统动力学建模分析

System Dynamics Modeling Analysis of Urban Power System Evolution Path

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