上海交通大学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (11): 1455-1464.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2022.053
所属专题: 《上海交通大学学报》2023年“新型电力系统与综合能源”专题
黄琬迪1, 张沈习1(), 程浩忠1, 陈丹2, 翟晓萌2, 吴霜2
收稿日期:
2022-03-05
修回日期:
2022-06-14
接受日期:
2022-07-13
出版日期:
2023-11-28
发布日期:
2023-12-01
通讯作者:
张沈习,副研究员,博士生导师;E-mail:作者简介:
黄琬迪(1997-),硕士生,从事电网投资优化、电力系统规划相关研究.
基金资助:
HUANG Wandi1, ZHANG Shenxi1(), CHENG Haozhong1, CHEN Dan2, ZHAI Xiaomeng2, WU Shuang2
Received:
2022-03-05
Revised:
2022-06-14
Accepted:
2022-07-13
Online:
2023-11-28
Published:
2023-12-01
摘要:
针对地区发展阶段具有不确定性和不同发展阶段下地区投资需求难以量化的问题,提出一种考虑地区发展阶段不确定性的电网投资决策鲁棒优化方法,以保证电网投资决策与实际发展需求的匹配程度,提高决策结果对投资组合风险与发展阶段不确定性的应对能力.首先,基于现代投资组合理论构建投资风险约束;其次,采用箱型不确定集对地区发展阶段不确定性进行表征,建立考虑发展阶段不确定性的电网投资决策鲁棒优化模型,模型中外层最小化问题求解最恶劣场景下的地区发展阶段不确定性变量,内层最大化问题求解最恶劣场景下能够使投资收益最大的决策方案;再次,根据强对偶理论将双层优化模型转化为可直接求解的单层模型,采用大M法对模型进行求解;最后,利用我国某东部沿海省份中13个地市的实际算例验证了该电网投资决策模型的适用性与有效性.
中图分类号:
黄琬迪, 张沈习, 程浩忠, 陈丹, 翟晓萌, 吴霜. 考虑地区发展阶段不确定性的电网投资决策鲁棒优化[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2023, 57(11): 1455-1464.
HUANG Wandi, ZHANG Shenxi, CHENG Haozhong, CHEN Dan, ZHAI Xiaomeng, WU Shuang. Robust Optimization of Power Grid Investment Decision-Making Considering Regional Development Stage Uncertainties[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2023, 57(11): 1455-1464.
表3
地区发展阶段及容载比上下限划分结果
地区 | t1 | t2 | t3 | 容载比上下限 |
---|---|---|---|---|
A | 1994 | 2015 | 2031 | 1.7~2.0 |
B | 1998 | 2016 | 2035 | 1.7~2.0 |
C | 1990 | 2011 | 2030 | 1.6~1.9 |
D | 1987 | 2006 | 2025 | 1.6~1.9 |
E | 1990 | 2010 | 2026 | 1.6~1.9 |
F | 1982 | 2008 | 2030 | 1.6~1.9 |
G | 1992 | 2012 | 2030 | 1.6~1.9 |
H | 1987 | 2010 | 2037 | 1.7~2.0 |
I | 1997 | 2016 | 2032 | 1.6~1.9 |
J | 1983 | 2010 | 2034 | 1.7~2.0 |
K | 1977 | 2012 | 2046 | 1.8~2.1 |
L | 1990 | 2014 | 2040 | 1.7~2.0 |
M | 2000 | 2015 | 2030 | 1.6~1.9 |
表6
不同鲁棒区间宽度下的投资决策净利润
年份 | 投资决策净利润/亿元 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
γ=0 | γ=0.05 | γ=0.1 | γ=0.15 | γ=0.2 | |
2020 | 57.514 | 57.719 | 57.536 | 57.241 | 56.324 |
2021 | 58.502 | 58.598 | 58.403 | 58.094 | 57.080 |
2022 | 59.483 | 59.535 | 59.334 | 59.003 | 57.941 |
2023 | 60.454 | 60.538 | 60.332 | 60.006 | 58.922 |
2024 | 61.417 | 61.605 | 61.395 | 61.066 | 60.018 |
2025 | 62.414 | 62.732 | 62.533 | 62.203 | 61.194 |
2026 | 63.282 | 63.855 | 63.700 | 63.373 | 62.471 |
2027 | 64.162 | 61.361 | 60.725 | 59.612 | 57.757 |
总计 | 651.879 | 649.001 | 644.620 | 641.418 | 629.283 |
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