上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报（自然版） ›› 2019, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (2): 146-152.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2019.02.004

• 学报（中文） • 上一篇    下一篇

评价公交行程时间可靠性价值的Mixed Logit模型

倪安宁1，刘晏尘1，崔毓伟1，卢军莉2   

  1. 1. 上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院， 上海 200240； 2. 兰州交通大学 交通运输学院， 兰州 730070
  • 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
  • 作者简介:倪安宁（1981-），男，山东省济宁市人，博士，助理研究员，主要从事出行行为分析与建模研究. E-mail：nianning@sjtu.edu.cn.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71001067）

Evaluation of Travel Time Reliability for Bus Passenger Based on Mixed Logit Model

NI Anning，LIU Yanchen,CUI Yuwei，LU Junli   

  1. 1. School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2. School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28

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摘要： 合理评价出行者行程时间可靠性价值有助于深入理解道路交通系统可靠性对出行决策的影响.以天津市区早高峰时段出行活动为背景，采用2种可靠性评价指标，设计包含不同情景的SP(Stated Preference)问卷调查程序.通过调查对象在问卷程序生成的与其日常出行活动类似的决策情景中做出的选择决策，研究以公交方式出行时出行者行程时间可靠性价值的评价特征，采用Mixed Logit模型标定参数.研究结果给出了早高峰时段出行者行程时间可靠性支付意愿的分布情况以及不同社会经济属性的出行者行程时间可靠性偏好特征，可为估算交通建设项目中行程时间可靠性改善给出行者带来的效益和制定交通需求管理政策提供参考.

关键词: 出行决策, 行程时间可靠性价值, Mixed Logit模型, 公交出行者, 交通需求管理

Abstract: Appropriate evaluation of traveler’s travel time reliability is important for understanding how the reliability influences traveler’s choice decision. Combined with SP survey design, two kinds of reliability criteria are applied and a questionnaire program which includes different decision scenes is proposed to study the characteristics of bus travelers’ evaluation of travel time reliability in the context of morning peak in Tianjin city. Questionnaire program is able to generate daily travel situations which are familiar to each respondent automatically. Mixed logit model is applied. The results provide the distribution of willingness to pay for the travel time reliability of travelers and the relation between reliability preference and different social economical characteristics. Furthermore, the results are also helpful for calculating the benefits of reliability improvement in transportation construction program, and provide meaningful references for TDM policies making.

Key words: travel decision, evaluation of travel time reliability, Mixed Logit model, bus traveler, travel demand management

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