上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报（自然版） ›› 2011, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (04): 576-580.

• 海洋工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

灾害性海洋环境下深水立管结构可靠性研究

 陈昌松, 薛鸿祥, 唐文勇, 胡志强   

  1. (上海交通大学 海洋工程国家重点实验室，上海 200240)
  • 收稿日期:2010-03-09 出版日期:2011-04-29 发布日期:2011-04-29
  • 基金资助:

    国家高技术研究发展计划（863）项目（2006AA09A1096），国家自然科学基金资助项目（51009089），海洋工程国家重点实验室自主研究课题（GKZD010006）

Structural Reliability Analysis of Deepwater Risers  in Catastrophic Ocean Environment

 CHEN  Chang-Song, XUE  Hong-Xiang, TANG  Wen-Yong, HU  Zhi-Qiang   

  1. (State Key Lab. of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)
  • Received:2010-03-09 Online:2011-04-29 Published:2011-04-29

摘要： 针对南海深水海域可能出现的灾害性海况条件，基于先进的深海浮式平台系统时域耦合分析和立管结构有限元动力响应计算的结果，采用广义极值理论，通过对非线性随机动力响应结果的数值拟合，研究了灾害环境下载荷概率模型的构建方法.基于结构可靠性技术，分析了立管构件的屈服极限状态，并进行了立管系统失效概率的求解及随机变量敏感性分析.结果表明，所提出的方法能充分考虑了深海平台系统的耦合效应，可以为灾害性海况下深水立管的可靠性评估提供有益的参考.

关键词: 深水立管, 灾害性海况, 可靠性, 广义极值理论

Abstract: A reliability analysis methodology for deep-water riser systems in catastrophic sea state was presented. Based on the advanced time domain couple analysis for deep-sea platforms and finite element dynamic response analysis for risers, the load probability model in catastrophic environment was conducted using generalized extreme value (GEV) theory. Based on structural reliability technique, the limitstate model was developed and the reliability and sensitivity analysis was performed. This methodology takes coupling effect of deep-sea platforms fully into account, which can provide a useful method for reliability assessment of deep-water risers in catastrophic sea state.

Key words: deep-water riser, catastrophic sea state, reliability, generalized extreme value theory

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