上海交通大学学报(自然版) ›› 2012, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (08): 1340-1348.

• 其他 • 上一篇    

上海养老保险改革的系统动力学仿真分析  

王宇熹1,汪泓1,2,陈群民3,肖峻4   

  1.  (1.上海工程技术大学 管理学院, 上海 201620; 2.上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院, 上海 200030;3.上海市人民政府发展研究中心, 上海 200003; 4.江西财经大学 金融与统计学院, 南昌 330013)  
  • 收稿日期:2012-02-20 出版日期:2012-08-31 发布日期:2012-08-31
  • 基金资助:

    国家哲学社科基金项目(11CGL021,11BJY040)资助;国家自然科学基金项目(71173153,70972043),教育部人文社会科学研究项目(08JC790068,08JC790049);上海市教委科研创新重点项目(09ZS194);上海市教委青年骨干教师国内访问学者项目

A Simulation Analysis of Shanghai Pension Reform Based on System Dynamics

 WANG  Yu-Xi-1, WANG  Hong-1, 2 , CHEN  Qun-Min-3, XIAO  Jun-4   

  1. (1.School of Management, Shanghai Univ. of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China; 2.Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China; 3.The Development Research Center of Shanghai Municipal People’s Government, Shanghai 200003, China; 4.Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)
  • Received:2012-02-20 Online:2012-08-31 Published:2012-08-31

摘要: 摘要: 
通过利用上海人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据及历年统计年鉴数据,将人口精算学和系统动力学模型通过Vensim表函数有机结合,实验模拟了6种情景的养老保险改革政策,在对养老基金收支及缺口预测结果曲线趋势分析基础上发现,“镇保”、“综保”并入“城保”的政策将会对上海原有养老保险系统产生较大正面影响,但同时也为未来基金的可持续发展埋下了隐患;2040年左右基金将面临退休潮和支付跃升,75%的政策强度应为最佳政策选择.
关键词: 
系统动力学; 仿真; 养老保险改革; 政策实验; 表函数
中图分类号:  N 949; N 941.3; N 941.5
文献标志码:  A    

Abstract: By the use of census and 1% sampling investigation population data and yearbook data, combining the population actuarial science and system dynamics model with table function, six pension reform policy scenes are simulated. On the basis of pension gap forecast curve trend analysis, the new pension system merging policy may not only have a positive influence on Shanghai pension system in short term, but also have a negative influence on the persistence of pension in long term. Pension system may face a retire tide and a payment jump. 75% policy strength may be the best choice. The conclusion has important theoretical significance and applying value for the Shanghai pension reform policy research. 

Key words: system dynamics, simulation, pension reform, policy experiment, table function