关键词: 出行链, 出行方式, 影响模式, 递归联立离散选择模型

Abstract: Based on the analysis of travel survey data, this paper developed and appliesd the recursive simultaneous bivariate probit modeling method to model the relationship between trip chaining and travel mode behavior of home based commuting trip chain. The analysis is carried out from two directions, namely trip chaining to travel mode, and travel mode to trip chaining. The developed model takes into consideration the effects of interdependencies between trip chaining and travel mode choice on each choosing behavior, which emphasizes the guidance of decision mechanism on travel behavior forecasting. The results show the pattern that trip chaining drives mode choice is the dominating trend. This means travelers first decide how to organize different activities and travel into trip chains based on individual and family needs and then make travel mode choice condition under the limit of trip chaining. These findings have important implications for travel demand forecasting and for the design and carrying out of demand management measures.