上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报（自然版）

• 管理科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

股 价 房 价 波 动 与 经 济 周 期 关 系

邓燊a,b，杨朝军b   

  1. (上海交通大学 a.网络教育学院， 上海 200030； b.安泰经济与管理学院， 上海 200052)
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-27 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-11-28 发布日期:2008-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 邓燊

The Relationship between Fluctuations of Stock & Real Estate Prices and Business Cycles

DENG Shen a,b,YANG Chao-jun b   

  1. （a.Network Education College, Shanghai 200030; b.Antai College of Economics & Management,
    Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China)
  • Received:2007-12-27 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-11-28 Published:2008-11-28

摘要： 通过模型推导和实证分析研究了股价波动、房价波动与经济周期之间的相互关系，构建了一个分析三者之间关系的统一框架.理论分析和实证结果表明，股价是宏观经济的领先指标，房价与GDP、利率和CPI 具有紧密的正向关系，房价波动与经济周期基本同步，股价波动大大领先房价波动.

关键词: 股价, 房价, 波动, 经济周期

Abstract: This paper discussed the relationship between fluctuations of stock & real estate prices and business cycles with model deduction and empirical evidence. A unite model analysing their relationship was found.The findings reveal that stock prices are the lead indicator of macroeconomy; there exists positive relationship between real estate prices and GDP, interest rates & CPI; the fluctuations of real estate prices are consistent with business cycles; and the fluctuations of stock prices greatly lead that of real estate prices.

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