On the basis of the Bayesian principle, a method of selecting the double beta distribution as a
priori distribution is proposed for the system reliability evaluation when the available field test samples are
small for pyrotechnic device. Under the condition of different field and historical data, the mean square error
(MSE) and coverage ratio (CR) of the reliability evaluation are compared by numerical simulation when the
conjugate distribution and uniform distribution are selected as the priori distribution. Finally, the rationality and
engineering applicability of the proposed method are verified through an example of the reliability evaluation of
a typical pyrotechnic device.
CHENG Li (程立), YANG Yuanyuan (杨媛媛), MU Huina (穆慧娜), YANG Xiaoyu (杨小玉), LI Li (李立), WEN Yuquan (温玉全)
. Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Double Beta Prior Distribution for the Pyrotechnic Device[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Science), 2019
, 24(5)
: 622
-627
.
DOI: 10.1007/s12204-019-2102-6
[1] HAMADA M S, WILSON A G, RESSE C S, et al.Bayesian reliability [M]. New York, USA: Springer,2008.
[2] BERGER J O. Statistical decision theory and Bayesiananalysis [M]. New York, USA: Springer, 1985.
[3] WEN Y. Study on the reliability analysis and assessmentmethod of the aerospace pyrotechnic devices [D].Beijing, China: Beijing Institute of Technology, 2015(in Chinese).
[4] KOCH K R. Introduction to Bayesian statistics [M].New York, USA: Springer, 2007.
[5] ZHAO Y, LIU J X, NIU Q P. Reliability evaluationbased on mixed beta priori distribution in binomialcase [J]. Aero Weaponry, 2014 (6): 59-61 (in Chinese).
[6] WU J, HE J, BAO T T. Research on data processingmethod in reliability experiment of squib valve [J].Power Equipment, 2016, 30(6): 412-416 (in Chinese).
