Researching China’s innovative economic and financial innovation issues under the background of the
New Normal, we need to carefully analyze the internal structure and interaction of China’s macroeconomics.
The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has outstanding advantages on predicting the external shock
influences on economic system, but previous studies on forecast for China’s future economy mostly considered a
high growth rate which is hard to comply with the New Normal scene. By constructing China’s macroeconomic
dynamic CGE (DCGE) model and anticipating the economic impact of the New Normal, this paper finds that the
New Normal has a certain extent inhibition on China’s macro-economy and innovation. However, after adding
the research and development (R&D) subsidy policy, the negative impacts of the New Normal on macro-economy
can be eliminated to realize the optimization of economic structure. In addition, after combining the financial
innovation promoting policy and the KeQiang index through the simulation of macro-economy, we find that the
quality of economic growth is improved. Finally, we provide the policy recommendations for the realization of an
innovative economy under China’s New Normal.
LI Chengyu (李程宇), SHAO Shuai* (邵 帅)
. A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Simulation of China’s Innovation-Based Economy Under the New Normal[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Science), 2016
, 21(3)
: 335
-342
.
DOI: 10.1007/s12204-016-1730-3
[1] LIU W, SU J. Chinese macro under “new normal” [J].Economic Science, 2014, 202(4): 5-13 (in Chinese).
[2] JOHANSEN L. A multi-sectoral study of economicgrowth [M]. Amsterdam, Netherlands: North-Holland,1960.
[3] DIXON P B, PARMENTER B R, POWELL A A,et al. Notes and problems in applied general equilibriumeconomics [M]. Amsterdam, Netherlands: North-Holland, 1992.
[4] NUGENT J B, SARMA C V. The three E’s-efficiency,equity, and environmental protection-in search of “winwin-win” policies: A CGE analysis of India [J]. Journalof Policy Modeling, 2002, 24(1): 19-50.
[5] HANSON D, LAITNER J A. An integrated analysis ofpolicies that increase investments in advanced energyefficient/low-carbon technologies original [J]. EnergyEconomics, 2004, 26(4): 739-755.
[6] FAN M T, ZHENG Y X, MA G. China CGEmodelThe basic structures and related applicationproblems [J]. Quantitative & Technical Economics,1998(12): 39-47 (in Chinese).
[7] LI S T, ZHAI F, XU L. China’s accession to WTO impacton China’s economy-dynamic general equilibriumanalysis [J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2000(2):3-14 (in Chinese).
[8] WEI W X. Effects of RMB appreciation on the Chinesemacro-economy [J]. Economic Research Journal,2006(4): 47-57 (in Chinese).
[9] REN B P, SONG W Y. Analysis on the factors to empolderthe economic growth potential in new normal[J]. Academic Monthly, 2015, 47(2): 15-22 (in Chinese).
[10] JIN B. Study on the new normal of Chinese economicdevelopment [J]. China Industrial Economics, 2015,322 (1): 5-18 (in Chinese).
[11] HONG Y X. On the middle-high growth new normaland its support normal [J]. Economic Perspectives,2014(11): 4-7 (in Chinese).
[12] MACHLUP F. Knowledge: Its creation, distributionand economic significance: The branches of learning[M]. New Jersey, USA: Princeton University Press,2014.
[13] WANG K, WANG C, CHEN J. Analysis of the economicimpact of different Chinese climate policy optionsbased on a CGE model incorporating endogenoustechnological change [J]. Energy Policy, 2009, 37 (8):2930-2940.
[14] WING I S. The synthesis of bottom-up and top-downapproaches to climate policy modeling: Electric powertechnology detail in a social accounting framework [J].Energy Economics, 2008, 30(2): 547-573.
[15] HU Z Y, LIU Y W. The effects of scientific and technologicalprogress on China’s macro-economy: A dynamicCGE approach [J]. China Soft Science, 2010(9):47-55 (in Chinese).
[16] WU J L, LI Y N, XU X N, et al. New normal changesChina: Chief economist talk about the trend [M]. Beijing:Democracy and Construction Press, 2014 (in Chinese).
