商业航天投资效益优化的群体多属性决策模型

doi:10.1007/s12204-021-2400-7

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对商业航天投资效益优化问题，提出了一种综合前景理论、多属性决策、群决策、熵权法等多种方法的商业航天投资效益优化群体多属性决策模型。首先，运用前景理论，依据不同专家的决策偏好确定投资决策函数，得到专家对于不同投资方案的综合前景值；其次，基于熵权法，获取专家决策权重；再次，采用群决策的聚集算法将专家群体决策信息进行集结，得到投资方案的最优决策；最后，通过一个算例说明了方法的可行性和有效性。该模型综合集成了多种方法，既有助于集成专家经验，又能够规避主观因素带来的影响，为商业航天投资的科学决策提供了方法。

关键词: 商业航天投资，多属性决策，群体决策，前景理论

Abstract: A group multiattribute decision-making model was proposed by implementing prospect theory, multiattribute decision-making, group decision-making and entropy methods for the optimization in commercial space investment. First, the decision-making function was decided using prospect theory by the preference of each expert to reach the comprehensive prospect value based on different investment options; second, expert decision weights were reached according to entropy method; third, the expert group decision-making information was congregated according to the group decision-making congregation algorithm to reach the most optimized investment option; finally, an example was given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method. This model comprehensively takes the advantages of many methods to congregate experts’ experiences and avoid the subjective influences, thus providing a scientific decision-making approach for the commercial space investment.

Key words: commercial space investment, multiattribute decision-making, group decision-making, prospect theory, entropy theory

中图分类号:

F403.8

张一鸣1，侯俊杰1，钟少文 2. 商业航天投资效益优化的群体多属性决策模型[J]. J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci, 2023, 28(6): 831-840.

ZHANG Yiming (张-鸣)，HOU Junjie1* (侯俊杰)，ZHONG Shaowen2 (钟少文). Optimization of Group Multiattribute Decision-Making Model in Commercial Space Investment[J]. J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci, 2023, 28(6): 831-840.

参考文献 18

[10]	WAN S P, DONG J Y. Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy mathematical programming method for hybrid multi-criteria group decision making with intervalvalued intuitionistic fuzzy truth degrees [J]. Information Fusion, 2015, 26: 49-65.
[1]	WANG W M, XU H Y. Multiple attribute large-scale group decision making method based on hybrid information [J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(11): 2560-2569 (in Chinese).
[11]	DONG J Y, WAN S P. Virtual enterprise partner selection integrating LINMAP and TOPSIS [J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2016, 67(10): 1288- 1308.
[2]	REN R R, LI W W, ZHAO M, et al. A large group decision making method based on public evaluation [J]. Management Review, 2018, 30(10): 238-247 (in Chinese).
[12]	LI R. Summary of prospect theory research [J]. Tribune of Social Sciences, 2014(2): 214-222 (in Chinese).
[3]	GONG C Z, LI L L, WEI Z F, et al. A method for hybrid multiple attribute decision making based onprospect theory and membership [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(10): 122-128 (in Chinese).
[13]	FAN Z P, CHEN F D, ZHANG X. Method for hybrid multiple attribute decision making based on cumulative prospect theory [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2012, 27(3): 295-301 (in Chinese).
[4]	ZHANG H Y, WEN F S, ZHANG C, et al. Prospect theory based multiple-attribute decisionmaking method for determining portfolio of construction projects in power systems [J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2016, 40(14): 8-14 (in Chinese).
[14]	TVERSKY A, KAHNEMAN D. Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty [J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5: 297-323.
[5]	JIANG G T. Method for hybrid stochastic multiple attribute decision making considering decision maker’s psychological behavior [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(6): 78-84 (in Chinese).
[15]	FENG D D. Research on credit rating method based on ELECTRE-III and application [D]. Dalian: Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2019 (in Chinese).
[6]	WAN S P, LI D F. Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy programming method for heterogeneous multiattribute group decision making with Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy truth degrees [J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2014, 22(2): 300-312.
[16]	ZHANG S, ZHANG M, CHI G T. The science and technology evaluation model based on entropy weight and empirical research during the 10th five-year of China [J]. Chinese Journal of Management, 2010, 7(1): 34-42 (in Chinese).
[7]	WAN S P, QIN Y L, DONG J Y. A hesitant fuzzy mathematical programming method for hybrid multicriteria group decision making with hesitant fuzzy truth degrees [J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2017, 138: 232-248.
[17]	SHEN F. Multi-attribute group decision-making method and its application based on ELECTRE-III algorithm [D]. Guizhou: Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, 2012 (in Chinese).
[8]	WAN S P, ZOU W C, DONG J Y. Prospect theory based method for heterogeneous group decision making with hybrid truth degrees of alternative comparisons [J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2020, 141: 106285.
[18]	CHENG Q Y. Structure entropy weight method to con- firm the weight of evaluating index [J]. Systems Engineering: Theory and Practice, 2010, 30(7): 1225-1228 (in Chinese).
[9]	WAN S P, LI D F. Fuzzy LINMAP approach to heterogeneous MADM considering comparisons of alternatives with hesitation degrees [J]. Omega, 2013, 41(6): 925-940.
[10]	WAN S P, DONG J Y. Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy mathematical programming method for hybrid multi-criteria group decision making with intervalvalued intuitionistic fuzzy truth degrees [J]. Information Fusion, 2015, 26: 49-65.
[11]	DONG J Y, WAN S P. Virtual enterprise partner selection integrating LINMAP and TOPSIS [J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2016, 67(10): 1288- 1308.
[12]	LI R. Summary of prospect theory research [J]. Tribune of Social Sciences, 2014(2): 214-222 (in Chinese).
[13]	FAN Z P, CHEN F D, ZHANG X. Method for hybrid multiple attribute decision making based on cumulative prospect theory [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2012, 27(3): 295-301 (in Chinese).
[14]	TVERSKY A, KAHNEMAN D. Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty [J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5: 297-323.
[15]	FENG D D. Research on credit rating method based on ELECTRE-III and application [D]. Dalian: Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2019 (in Chinese).
[16]	ZHANG S, ZHANG M, CHI G T. The science and technology evaluation model based on entropy weight and empirical research during the 10th five-year of China [J]. Chinese Journal of Management, 2010, 7(1): 34-42 (in Chinese).
[17]	SHEN F. Multi-attribute group decision-making method and its application based on ELECTRE-III algorithm [D]. Guizhou: Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, 2012 (in Chinese).
[18]	CHENG Q Y. Structure entropy weight method to con- firm the weight of evaluating index [J]. Systems Engineering: Theory and Practice, 2010, 30(7): 1225-1228 (in Chinese).