分布式光伏集群发电功率波动模式识别与超短期概率预测
王于波1, 郝玲2,3(
), 徐飞2,3, 陈文彬1, 郑利斌1, 陈磊2,3, 闵勇2,3
), 徐飞2,3, 陈文彬1, 郑利斌1, 陈磊2,3, 闵勇2,3
Pattern Recognition and Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Power Fluctuating in Aggregated Distributed Photovoltaics Clusters
WANG Yubo1, HAO Ling2,3(), XU Fei2,3, CHEN Wenbin1, ZHENG Libin1, CHEN Lei2,3, MIN Yong2,3
), XU Fei2,3, CHEN Wenbin1, ZHENG Libin1, CHEN Lei2,3, MIN Yong2,3
图10. 未改进模型的预测误差PDF、CDF和90%置信度下预测区间
Fig.10. Forecasting error PDF, CDF, and 90% confidence PI in unimproved model
