分布式光伏集群发电功率波动模式识别与超短期概率预测

王于波, 郝玲, 徐飞, 陈文彬, 郑利斌, 陈磊, 闵勇

Pattern Recognition and Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Power Fluctuating in Aggregated Distributed Photovoltaics Clusters

WANG Yubo, HAO Ling, XU Fei, CHEN Wenbin, ZHENG Libin, CHEN Lei, MIN Yong

表3 不同预测模型的预测区间评价指标

Tab.3 PI evaluation indicators of different forecasting models

模型 eACE/% δmean/ MW S/MW LSTM -12.41 191.38 -162.94 LSTM+DWT -9.56 167.94 -139.90 LSTM+WPD -9.10 166.58 -137.73 LSTM+EMD -9.33 165.81 -136.78 LSTM+VMD -8.91 160.42 -131.77 LSTM+PR -7.96 154.72 -128.18