一种新型天气分型方法及其在光伏功率预测中的应用

李芬, 周尔畅, 孙改平, 白永清, 童力, 刘邦银, 赵晋斌

A Novel Weather Classification Method and Its Application in Photovoltaic Power Prediction

LI Fen, ZHOU Erchang, SUN Gaiping, BAI Yongqing, TONG Li, LIU Bangyin, ZHAO Jinbin

表6 不同天气类型下各统计模型的误差分析

Tab.6 Error analysis of statistical models in different weather types

模型 天气类型1 天气类型2 天气类型3 天气类型4 MAPE/% NRMSE/% MAPE/% NRMSE/% MAPE/% NRMSE/% MAPE/% NRMSE/% LR 20.06 25.11 18.87 22.30 33.43 58.09 47.50 70.39 GPR 13.18 19.73 15.78 18.47 32.94 58.93 34.73 61.58 SVR 14.52 20.40 14.30 16.94 33.87 58.33 31.56 54.50 Adaboost 16.61 24.15 19.38 23.42 31.02 52.56 42.94 66.29