一种新型天气分型方法及其在光伏功率预测中的应用

李芬, 周尔畅, 孙改平, 白永清, 童力, 刘邦银, 赵晋斌

A Novel Weather Classification Method and Its Application in Photovoltaic Power Prediction

LI Fen, ZHOU Erchang, SUN Gaiping, BAI Yongqing, TONG Li, LIU Bangyin, ZHAO Jinbin

表3 非线性回归模型

Tab.3 Nonlinear regression models

模型名称 表达式 RSS R2 Metcherlich y = b 1 + b 2 exp ( - b 3 P ) 3.140 0.983 Johnson-Schumacher y = b 1 exp ( - b 2 / ( P + b 3 ) ) 1.376 0.992 Morgen-Mercer-Florin y = ( b 1 b 2 + b 3 P b 4 ) / ( b 2 + P b 4 ) 1.372 0.992 Peal-Reed y = b 1 / { 1 + b 2 exp [ - ( b 3 P + b 4 P 2 + b 5 P 3 ) ] } 1.807 0.990 Richards $y=b_{1}/\{[1+b_{3}exp(-b_{2}P)]^{1/b_{4}}\}$ 1.470 0.992