目标导向与风险规避的微电网运行场景缩减方法

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  • 1. 上海交通大学 电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室,上海 200240;

    2.电网运行风险防御技术与装备全国重点实验室,南京211106
林嘉庆,硕士生,研究方向为电力系统及其自动化
徐潇源,副教授;E-mail:xuxiaoyuan@sjtu.edu.cn.

网络出版日期: 2026-01-23

Objective-Oriented and Risk-Averse Scenario Reduction Method for Microgrid Operation

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  • 1.Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion of the Ministry of Education,Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China2. State Key Laboratory of Technology and Equipment for Defense against Power System Operational Risks, Nanjing 211106, China

Online published: 2026-01-23

摘要

含高比例可再生能源的微电网面临源荷不确定性的挑战,现有的不确定场景缩减方法存在未计及优化模型特征和风险规避能力不足的问题。本文提出一种目标导向的场景缩减方法。 首先,构建计及不确定性的微电网的日前-日内两阶段优化调度模型;接着,定义并推导了场景在目标空间的距离;然后,提出基于代理场景集合的目标导向场景聚类方法,并根据聚类簇的运行风险重新分配权重,得到微电网优化目标导向的代表场景和风险规避权重。最后,基于IEEE 33节点系统和IEEE123节点系统扩展的微电网进行仿真分析,验证了该方法对于代表场景的靶向性选取、降低微电网运行成本和提升调度决策鲁棒性的有效性。



收稿日期:2025-09-29  修回日期:2025-11-24  录用日期:2025-12-29

基金项目:电网运行风险防御技术与装备全国重点实验室资助项目(SGNRGF00SXQT2501972)

作者简介:林嘉庆,硕士生,研究方向为电力系统及其自动化。

通信作者:徐潇源,副教授;E-mail:xuxiaoyuan@sjtu.edu.cn.

本文引用格式

林嘉庆1, 朱鹏程2, 徐潇源1, 2, 严正1, 张金龙2 . 目标导向与风险规避的微电网运行场景缩减方法[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2025.329

Abstract

Microgrids with a high penetration of renewable energy sources face pronounced source–load uncertainties. Existing uncertainty-driven scenario reduction methods often fail to incorporate the characteristics of the optimization model and exhibit insufficient risk-aversion capability. This paper proposes an objective-oriented scenario reduction method. First, a two-stage day-ahead and intra-day optimal scheduling model is formulated for the microgrid under uncertainty. Next, the distance between scenarios in the objective space is defined and analytically derived. An objective-oriented scenario clustering method based on a proxy scenario set is then developed, and scenario weights are reassigned according to the operational risk of each cluster to obtain representative scenarios and risk-aversion weights aligned with the optimization objective. Finally, simulations on microgrids derived from the IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 123-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method effectively enables targeted selection of representative scenarios, reduces microgrid operating costs, and enhances the robustness of dispatch decisions.
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