基于反向传播神经网络的海洋工程项目投标风险评价方法
收稿日期: 2023-05-14
修回日期: 2023-06-14
录用日期: 2023-07-18
网络出版日期: 2023-11-10
基金资助
上海市科技创新行动计划(21DZ1201106)
Risk Assessment Method for Marine Engineering Project Bidding Based on Back Propagation Neural Network
Received date: 2023-05-14
Revised date: 2023-06-14
Accepted date: 2023-07-18
Online published: 2023-11-10
海洋工程行业是一个国际化的行业,其国际化的性质决定了该行业的竞争的激烈性.同时海洋工程项目需要大规模的资金投入,所以在进行该类项目投标时,公司决策人员能否对拟投标项目进行正确的风险评估后做出合理的投标决策,对公司的长期发展起到至关重要的作用.通过对海洋工程行业投标项目相关风险因素的分析和识别,使用模糊层次分析法量化定性问题,并通过反向传播(Back Propagation,BP)神经网络的高容错、高泛化能力,建立相应项目风险评价模型.经过验证,该模型评估结果与实际专家评分结果相一致,具有较高的准确性,从而为海洋工程行业的配套企业在投标决策过程中提供了一个有效且快速的风险分析工具.
夏禹, 王磊 . 基于反向传播神经网络的海洋工程项目投标风险评价方法[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2023 , 57(S1) : 46 -53 . DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.S1.26
The marine engineering industry is an internationalized sector, whose internationalization determines the intensity of competition. In the bidding process, it is crucial for company decision-makers to conduct accurate risk assessments, as this plays a vital role in the long-term development of the company. A high accuracy project risk assessment model is established after analyzing and identifying relevant risk factors in such projects based on quantifying qualitative problems using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and utilizing the high fault-tolerance and generalization capabilities of the back propagation (BP) neural network. Thus, the model provides an effective and efficient risk analysis tool for supporting enterprises in the marine engineering industry in the bidding decision-making process.
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