城市是能源消费与碳排放的主力.在“双碳”背景下,促进城市能源系统低碳转型已成为当前城市规划的首要任务.然而,在新能源出力占比增加的同时,系统的灵活性需求也随之增加.为此,提出一种考虑长短期不确定性的城市能源系统扩展规划模型,涵盖电、气、热多种能源形态,在规划的层面计及实时运行阶段的不确定性及运行灵活性,并采用随机优化方法进行求解.模型考虑新能源机组和能源枢纽中各类能源转换设备的容量扩建,通过施加碳排放配额约束来确保达成碳减排目标.算例结果表明,该模型能有效提高城市能源系统的经济性和新能源消纳率,并且可以满足不同的碳减排需求.

Urban cities are the main force of energy consumption and carbon emission. In the context of “dual carbon”, promoting low-carbon transformation of urban energy systems has become the top priority of urban planning. However, while the share of renewable energy output increases, the requirement for system flexibility also increases. To this end, an urban energy system expansion planning model that accounts for both long-term and short-term uncertainties is proposed. Multiple forms of energy, including electricity, gas, and heat are encompassed in this model. At the planning level, uncertainty and operational flexibility during the real-time operation stage are estimated, and a stochastic optimization approach is employed for solving. The capacity expansion of renewable energy generators and energy hubs (EHs) is considered by the model, with the imposition of carbon emission quota constraints to ensure the attainment of carbon emission reduction targets. The results show that the model can effectively improve the economy of urban energy system and the rate of consumption of renewable energy, and can meet different carbon-emission reduction requirements.