上海交通大学学报

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2021 , Vol. 55 >Issue 12: 1567 - 1576

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.294

“双碳”目标下电力系统供给侧形态发展系统动力学建模与分析

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  • 四川大学 电气工程学院, 成都 610065
陈文溆乐(1998-),女,重庆市人,硕士生,从事低碳电力系统研究.

收稿日期: 2021-07-30

  网络出版日期: 2021-12-30

基金资助

国家电网公司科技项目“多目标动态平衡的电网投资规划技术与价值衍生评估研究”(1400-202157215A-0-0-00)

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System Dynamic Modeling and Analysis of Power System Supply Side Morphological Development with Dual Carbon Targets

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  • College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

Received date: 2021-07-30

  Online published: 2021-12-30

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摘要

为了模拟双碳目标对电力系统供给侧形态发展的影响,通过分析电源结构转型过程中碳排放的主要影响因素及其相关关系,构建4种不同发展情景的系统动力学模型.仿真分析了4种发展路径下发电结构、电力碳排放的演化趋势.结果表明:电力系统能源供给侧形态发展受多种因素的共同影响,在政策大力支持的前提下,市场消纳机制和消纳技术的发展促进电力系统发电结构的转型,对双碳目标的实现具有重要意义.

关键词： 双碳目标; 供给侧; 碳排放; 系统动力学

本文引用格式

陈文溆乐, 向月, 彭光博, 刘友波, 刘俊勇 . “双碳”目标下电力系统供给侧形态发展系统动力学建模与分析[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2021 , 55(12) : 1567 -1576 . DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.294

Abstract

In order to simulate the impacts of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on power system supply side transformation from, the system dynamics method is used to analyze the main influencing factors for carbon emissions in the process of power structure transformation and their correlations under four different development scenarios. The evolution of power generation structure and power carbon emission in four development paths are studied. The results show that the power system supply side transformation would be affected by many factors. Under the premise of policy support, the development of market absorption mechanism and absorption technology would contribute to the transformation of the power generation structure, which is of great significance to the realization of the dual carbon targets.

Key words： carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals; supply side; carbon emissions; system dynamics

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