为了探究现有的起皱评价方法对薄壁球面构件普旋法兰起皱发生时刻预测的精确性，以 2024-O 铝合金球面薄壁构件第一道次普旋为研究对象，通过试验方法确定了2024-O铝合金旋压法兰起皱发生时刻，同时结合数值仿真手段，基于现有的起皱评价方法分别得出了2024-O铝合金旋压法兰起皱发生时刻的结果.研究结果表明：法兰几何波动法和基于塑性失稳的理论模型可以正确地预测法兰起皱发生时刻，前者预测误差达到125%，后者误差为77%；旋压力法可以预测法兰严重起皱时刻，但无法定量预测起皱发生时刻；弹性应变能振荡法对上述两种起皱问题均无法预测.
In order to explore the accuracy of the existing wrinkle evaluation method for the prediction of the wrinkling of the thin-walled spherical members, the first-pass conventional spinning of the 2024-O aluminum alloy spherical thin-walled member is taken as the research object, and the test method is used to determine the occurrence of the 2024-O aluminum alloy spinning flange wrinkle, combined with the numerical simulation method, which obtains the results of the wrinkling occurrence of the 2024-O aluminum alloy spinning flange based on the existing wrinkle evaluation methods. The results show that the flange geometry wave method and the model based on plastic instability theory can correctly predict the moment when the flange wrinkles occur, and the former method’s prediction error is 12.5% and the latter is 7.7%. The spin pressure method can predict the moment of serious wrinkles, but cannot quantitatively predict the occurrence time of wrinkles. The elastic strain energy oscillation method cannot predict the above two wrinkling problems.
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