合理评价出行者行程时间可靠性价值有助于深入理解道路交通系统可靠性对出行决策的影响.以天津市区早高峰时段出行活动为背景，采用2种可靠性评价指标，设计包含不同情景的SP(Stated Preference)问卷调查程序.通过调查对象在问卷程序生成的与其日常出行活动类似的决策情景中做出的选择决策，研究以公交方式出行时出行者行程时间可靠性价值的评价特征，采用Mixed Logit模型标定参数.研究结果给出了早高峰时段出行者行程时间可靠性支付意愿的分布情况以及不同社会经济属性的出行者行程时间可靠性偏好特征，可为估算交通建设项目中行程时间可靠性改善给出行者带来的效益和制定交通需求管理政策提供参考.
Appropriate evaluation of traveler’s travel time reliability is important for understanding how the reliability influences traveler’s choice decision. Combined with SP survey design, two kinds of reliability criteria are applied and a questionnaire program which includes different decision scenes is proposed to study the characteristics of bus travelers’ evaluation of travel time reliability in the context of morning peak in Tianjin city. Questionnaire program is able to generate daily travel situations which are familiar to each respondent automatically. Mixed logit model is applied. The results provide the distribution of willingness to pay for the travel time reliability of travelers and the relation between reliability preference and different social economical characteristics. Furthermore, the results are also helpful for calculating the benefits of reliability improvement in transportation construction program, and provide meaningful references for TDM policies making.
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