针对参数横摇Level 2衡准运动预报方法的选型研究，对于制定合理的动稳性衡准、提高船舶的安全水平具有重要意义.基于模型试验数据验证并对比了3种备选的非线性力学方法的预报精度，包括时域方法和平均方法，并分析了引起差异的原因.在此基础上，通过对比大量实船以及事故船的敏感性水平预报结果，为Level 2衡准预报方法的选型提出了若干建议.该研究首次针对参数横摇Level 2衡准运动预报方法开展了精度验证和对比分析，并提出了时域方法参数设置建议，有助于第2代完整稳性衡准的制定.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) lunched a new round of model selection for motion prediction method of the Level 2 parametric rolling (PR) criteria in 2016. The model selection study on prediction method is very important for developing reasonable dynamic stability criteria and increasing the safety level of ship. According to test data, three alternative nonlinear dynamics methods are verified, validated and compared, including time-domain method and averaging method, and the reasons for difference of prediction precision have been analyzed. On this basis, vulnerability levels for large scale sample calculations and accident ship have been obtained and compared, and several suggestions about model selection for motion prediction method of the Level 2 PR criteria have also been given. The accuracy validation and comparison study are executed firstly for the motion prediction methods of Level 2 criteria of PR in this study, and parameters setting of time-domain method are also provided. This is helpful to the development of second generation stability criteria.
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