上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报（自然版） ›› 2013, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (05): 846-850.

• 其他 • 上一篇    

基于贝叶斯网络的非常规突发事件灾情评估

徐磊1，李向阳1，黄湘岳2   

  1.   (1.哈尔滨工业大学 管理学院, 哈尔滨 150001； 2.北京师范大学 减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京 100875)
     
  • 收稿日期:2012-10-30 出版日期:2013-05-28 发布日期:2013-05-28
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重大研究计划资助项目 (91024028, 91024031)

Unconventional Emergency Assessment Based on Bayesian Network
 
 

XU Lei1,LI Xiangyang1，HUANG Xiangyue2
  

  1. (1.School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China;2.Academy of Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)
  • Received:2012-10-30 Online:2013-05-28 Published:2013-05-28

摘要：

非常规突发事件的发生往往给人民生命财产和国民经济造成巨大损失，由于传统的突发事件评估系统大多是基于历史数据或专家经验的静态系统，使得应对非常规突发事件时无法动态地有效融合多源信息，而且大量的变量和数据往往造成评估系统计算效率偏低.因此，针对以上问题，提出了基于贝叶斯网络的非常规突发事件灾情评估方法，并且通过对贝叶斯网络模型的拓扑结构进行优化进一步提高了系统的计算效率.通过简化的核电站机组外部电网震后评估算例对所述方法进行了验证.结果表明，基于贝叶斯网络的非常规突发事件评估方法具有多源信息表示、融合以及全局更新的能力，并且可以有效地提高计算效率，适用于非常规突发事件的灾情评估.

 
 

关键词: 非常规突发事件, 贝叶斯网络, 灾情评估, 拓扑结构

Abstract:

To solve the problems in the traditional emergency assessment of unconventional emergencies, an unconventional emergency assessment method based on Bayesian network was proposed. Besides, the system efficiency was further improved by the topological optimization of Bayesian network model. Moreover, an example application to a simplified backup power transmission system of nuclear power units was presented to illustrate and test the proposed method. The results show that the proposed Bayesian network based method has valuable characteristics, such as  multiinformation expression,  fusion, and updating,  and can improve the computation efficiency, which make it wellsuited for unconventional emergency assessment.

Key words: unconventional emergency, Bayesian network, performance assessment, topological structure

中图分类号: