海堤设计风浪和设计潮位组合风险率分析

上海交通大学学报（自然版） ›› 2012, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (10): 1671-1674.

海堤设计风浪和设计潮位组合风险率分析

杨星1，刘志龙2，吴苏舒1，李志清1，李朝方2

(1. 江苏省水利科学研究院，南京 210017； 2. 深圳市水务规划设计院，广东深圳 518001)

收稿日期:2011-12-16 出版日期:2012-10-30 发布日期:2012-10-30
基金资助:
水利部公益性项目(201001070)，深圳市水务发展中长期战略研究项目(SZCG2010021725)

The Risk Probability Analysis on Design Combination of Wind Wave and Tidal Level in Design of Sea Dike

YANG Xing-1, LIU Zhi-Long-2, WU Su-Shu-1, LI Zhi-Qing-1, LI Chao-Fang-2

(1. Jiangsu Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210017, China; 2. Shenzhen Water Resources Planning & Design Institute, Shenzhen 518001, Guangdong, China)

Received:2011-12-16 Online:2012-10-30 Published:2012-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 风浪和潮位是海堤设计的关键因素，为保障海堤工程的安全性并使工程设计更为经济合理，基于Clayton Copula连接函数建立了潮位和风浪联合分布函数，以此构建了风浪和潮位组合设计风险分析模型，提出了考虑风险率模式下的风浪和潮位组合设计方法.以深圳市赤湾海域为例，分析了1971～2002年实测水文资料，获得了风浪和潮位组合风险率.结果显示：深圳赤湾海域大潮与大风同时遭遇的概率小，采用同频率设计偏于安全;而所建模型充分考虑到了风浪和潮位这种遭遇的特性，对风浪和潮位遭遇工况的合理设计具有指导意义，也为沿海城市海堤设计参数的确定提供了一种技术手段.

关键词: 海堤, 设计潮位, 设计风浪, 风险率, 组合设计

Abstract: Wind wave and tidal level are the crucial factors in the design of sea dike project. To balance the engineering cost and engineering safety, an approach was applied to design the combination of wind wave and tidal level with risk consideration. A combined distribution function was built by using Clayton Copula, thereafter, the wind wave and wind level combination risk design model was established. Observed hydrological data on Shenzheng Chiwan area from 1971 to 2002 were analyzed to obtain the combined risk probability of wind wave and tidal level. The results indicate that the probability is low when high wind wave reaching high tidal level, and the model puts the risk probability into consideration, which provides a reasonable method for coastal sea dike design.

Key words: sea dike, design tidal level, design wind wave, risk probability, combination design

中图分类号:

TV 87

杨星1, 刘志龙2, 吴苏舒1, 李志清1, 李朝方2. 海堤设计风浪和设计潮位组合风险率分析 [J]. 上海交通大学学报（自然版）, 2012, 46(10): 1671-1674.

YANG Xing-1, LIU Zhi-Long-2, WU Su-Shu-1, LI Zhi-Qing-1, LI Chao-Fang-2. The Risk Probability Analysis on Design Combination of Wind Wave and Tidal Level in Design of Sea Dike[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2012, 46(10): 1671-1674.

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