上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报（自然版）

• 水利工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

海堤渗压监测因果模型基本结构和因子选择

黄铭，刘俊   

  1. (上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院， 上海 200030)
  • 收稿日期:2007-10-29 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-11-28 发布日期:2008-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 黄铭

The Frame of Sea Wall Osmosis Pressure Monitoring Model and Factors Selection

HUANG Ming，LIU Jun   

  1. (School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering,
    Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China)
  • Received:2007-10-29 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-11-28 Published:2008-11-28
  • Contact: HUANG Ming

摘要： 为揭示海堤渗压规律以及与主要影响因素间的关系，并建立安全监测因果模型、实现对海堤状态的实时监控，以监测数据为基础，对海堤实测渗压、潮位和降雨记录以及存在的因果关系加以分析，确定了海堤渗压因果监测模型的基本结构；采用统计距离比较方法选取合理的初选前期潮位因子，提出反映降雨量和降雨持续作用时间的降雨因子形式，并加入时效因子，以实测数据建立了海堤渗压监控因果模型.结果表明，该因果模型具有良好的拟合、预测效果.

关键词: 海堤, 渗压, 监测模型结构, 影响因子

Abstract: To describe the osmosis pressure rule and the relationship between it and main effect factors, and to establish the cause and effect model for sea wall safety state real time monitoring, the monitoring data, including sea wall osmosis pressure survey data series, tidewater series and rain records, and their relationships were analyzed. Then, the frame of the cause and effect monitoring model was presented. The former tidewater factor of osmosis pressure was preselected by statistical distance analysis. A new rain effect factor that can reflect the rainfall amount and its duration was presented. These factors together with time effect factors were used to establish the osmosis pressure monitoring model with practical observed data.The results show that this kind model can be good at fitting and forecasting.

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