基于风险的超高层施工钢平台疏散模型及应用

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2020.251

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

整体钢平台模架体系在超高层建筑施工过程中应用广泛,复杂的施工环境为施工人员带来了高度的风险,有必要建立基于风险随机性的超高层建筑施工钢平台人员疏散模型.首先,考虑危险源在钢平台的空间分布划分危险区域,通过风险调研问卷收集专家数据从而建立风险联合概率评估模型;然后,基于元胞自动机地面场模型将风险评估与人员疏散结合,对钢平台施工人员的疏散过程进行仿真;最后,将该模型应用于某实际超高层建筑施工项目中.结果表明:钢平台顶层及下层危险区域对施工人员疏散的影响程度受出口大小的影响显著.模型为经验导向的施工现场安全预警和人员管控提供了新范式,对整体钢平台模架体系的安全运维具有重要的理论和应用价值.

关键词: 超高层建筑施工, 整体钢平台体系, 危险区域, 风险随机概率, 人员疏散

Abstract:

Integral steel platform formwork is widely used in the construction of super high-rise buildings, which brings a high degree of risk uncertainty to construction personnel. Therefore, it is crucial and necessary to establish a risk-based evacuation model for steel platform formwork in skyscraper construction. First, the spatial distribution of hazards sources on the steel platform is considered, hazardous areas are defined, and expert data are collected through survey questionnaires to assess the joint risk probability. Next, the joint risk probability of hazardous areas is coupled into the evacuation process based on the cellular automaton floor field model, and the evacuation process of construction personnel on the steel platform is simulated. Finally, the proposed risk-based evacuation simulation model is applied to an actual construction project. The results show that the influence of the top and lower hazardous areas on the evacuation process is significantly affected by the size of the exit. The model provides a new paradigm for experience-oriented construction safety management, with a theoretical and application value for the maintenance of the integral steel platform formwork system.

Key words: super high-rise building construction, integral steel platform formwork, hazardous area, risk probability, evacuation

中图分类号:

TU974
X947

华莹, 何军, 赵金城, 邹杰新, 张菁菁, 阮诗鹏. 基于风险的超高层施工钢平台疏散模型及应用[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2021, 55(11): 1380-1391.

HUA Ying, HE Jun, ZHAO Jincheng, ZOU Jiexin, ZHANG Jingjing, RUAN Shipeng. Risk-Based Evacuation Model for Steel Platform Formwork in Skyscraper Construction and Its Application[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2021, 55(11): 1380-1391.

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危险区域	危险区域名称	μ_ln_D	σ_ln_D	max ln D
HA1	塔吊作业区	1.652	1.555	8.294
HA2	焊接加工区	1.319	1.531	5.598
HA3	物料堆放区	1.642	1.531	5.529
HA4	平台未铺板区	1.865	1.539	4.836
HA5	临时用电区	1.479	1.315	6.292
HA6	平台临边区	1.614	1.526	4.836
HA7	楼梯运动区	1.150	1.433	4.094
HA8	走道堆物区	1.360	1.443	5.193
HA9	核心筒施工区	1.126	1.506	4.836

i	ρ'_ij
i	j=1	j=2	j=3	j=4	j=5	j=6	j=7	j=8	j=9
1	1.000	0.513	0.349	0.365	0.433	0.267	0.284	0.370	0.555
2	0.513	1.000	0.466	0.405	0.684	0.348	0.254	0.406	0.433
3	0.349	0.466	1.000	0.488	0.430	0.478	0.498	0.585	0.380
4	0.365	0.405	0.488	1.000	0.362	0.472	0.455	0.409	0.376
5	0.433	0.684	0.430	0.362	1.000	0.291	0.187	0.360	0.419
6	0.267	0.348	0.478	0.472	0.291	1.000	0.599	0.241	0.274
7	0.284	0.254	0.498	0.455	0.187	0.599	1.000	0.256	0.289
8	0.370	0.406	0.585	0.409	0.360	0.241	0.256	1.000	0.345
9	0.555	0.433	0.380	0.376	0.419	0.274	0.289	0.345	1.000

主风险区	P_HA1	P_HA2	P_HA3	P_HA4	P_HA5	P_HA6	P_HA7	P_HA8	P_HA9
HA1	1.000	0.406	0.294	0.285	0.301	0.193	0.195	0.252	0.398
HA2	0.245	0.980	0.257	0.211	0.310	0.172	0.137	0.191	0.209
HA3	0.166	0.221	0.961	0.228	0.190	0.203	0.202	0.239	0.175
HA4	0.143	0.160	0.192	0.845	0.140	0.164	0.156	0.149	0.144
HA5	0.269	0.466	0.311	0.243	0.999	0.183	0.134	0.216	0.258
HA6	0.126	0.153	0.203	0.189	0.130	0.892	0.202	0.117	0.127
HA7	0.128	0.125	0.206	0.180	0.106	0.205	0.878	0.119	0.129
HA8	0.179	0.204	0.308	0.204	0.172	0.132	0.134	0.971	0.169
HA9	0.235	0.202	0.191	0.179	0.182	0.136	0.137	0.156	0.952